Building Diversity in New Zealand Dairy Export Markets for Independent Manufacturers
The combination of a shrinking milk pool, increasing geopolitical volatility, and heavy market concentration in China, is placing unprecedented pressure on dairy exporters. Malinda Wynyard’s 2025 Kellogg Report explores the fertile ground for innovation, differentiation and strategic global positioning into emerging markets. Words Sarah Perriam-Lampp.
For much of our country’s dairy history there has been a prevailing assumption that premium, value-added dairy products would find their best home in wealthy, developed markets. We have long relied on major single-market partners – first Britain, then China – but we now sit at a pivotal moment, with our dairy exports particularly, during periods of political or economic instability.
In her Kellogg report, “Building Diversity in New Zealand Dairy Export Markets for Independent Manufacturers”, Malinda Wynyard, a management accountant at Miraka and 2025 Kellogg scholar, challenges long‑held beliefs of where value really lies for our dairy products globally.
Her review of the post-2008 China Free Trade Agreement shows how NZ’s dairy exports surged – quadrupling by 2024 – but also how fragile this reliance has become as China expands domestic dairy production and consumer behaviour shifts.
“Chinese milk has become both cheaper and more trusted in key markets which has eroded some of the traditional advantages New Zealand exporters once enjoyed.”
Her report focused on what ‘independent dairy manufacturers’ need to lean into to thrive in offshore markets (which Miraka was technically one of them whilst she was doing her report).
“With Open Country’s purchase of Mataura Valley and Miraka, there are now fewer independent manufacturers, and New Zealand is drifting towards a de facto duopoly of Fonterra and Open Country,” says Malinda.
As industry consolidation with Fonterra’s milk procurement shrinks, in an environment of flat total national milk supply, she says the focus of the non‑Fonterra manufacturers has a value vs volume game to play on the world stage.
Her biggest surprise was discovering that ‘developing nations’, not established first‑world economies, are often more willing to pay a premium for attributes like sustainability and animal welfare.
”Meanwhile, in developing countries, New Zealand’s reputation for integrity, food safety and values‑based production can still command attention and higher value,” she explains.
“Consumers in wealthy, first world countries tend to trust their own local dairy producers more and often see imported New Zealand dairy as no better and sometimes worse than local options.”
“Consumers in wealthy, first world countries tend to trust their own local dairy producers more and often see imported New Zealand dairy as no better and sometimes worse than local options.” – Malinda Wynyard, MIRAKA & 2025 KELLOGG’S SCHOLAR
She highlights that this raises the stakes for how these smaller dairy processor businesses perform into the future, not just for shareholders, but for farmers, rural communities and the wider economy.
For smaller manufacturers without the scale, capital or political weight of well-capitalised entrants like OFI entering the New Zealand market, she argues their most powerful lever is their authentic relationships up and down the value chain.
Across her interviews there was a strong consensus that emerged: independent manufacturers cannot and should not try to compete on price. Whether the exporter is Māori‑owned, New Zealand‑owned or foreign‑owned, she suggests that clarity of their purpose and storytelling are what ultimately gets the best cut through in emerging markets. Her research identifies several promising avenues for diversification:
- Southeast Asia
A rapidly expanding middle class, rising dairy consumption and limited local technical capacity make SEA a high-potential region. - Japan
Japan’s ageing population and declining domestic dairy supply create strong demand for high-value, innovative ingredients. - Latin America
Despite complexity and competition from the US and EU, markets such as Mexico show clear opportunity for specialised NZ dairy products. - Indigenous-to-Indigenous Trade
Māori-owned exporters have distinctive advantages when forming relationships with other indigenous economies.
Malinda drew inspiration from the success of the Merino industry, which transformed a commodity product into a premium global brand by connecting values, people and narrative.
“You have to have relationships all through the value chain that are aligned with what you’re trying to achieve. That builds strong relationships all the way through that holds the value.”
She argues that NZ dairy must do the same, especially independent processors aiming to stand out.
“If everyone going to market tells the same story in a different way, no one else is going to understand it.”
She believes a strong cohesive national dairy story, aligned with tikanga Māori where appropriate, could strengthen New Zealand’s total market appeal and build deeper cross-cultural relationships.
