Markets

As the 2026 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Index starts to show its colours, it is evident that global markets are transitioning downwards from a peak in May 2025.

The combination of a shrinking milk pool, increasing geopolitical volatility, and heavy market concentration in China, is placing unprecedented pressure on dairy exporters. Malinda Wynyard’s 2025 Kellogg Report explores the fertile ground for innovation, differentiation and strategic global positioning into emerging markets. Words Sarah Perriam-Lampp.

A volatile start to 2026 has put global dairy markets back in the spotlight, with a sharp lift in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction offering some early-year optimism for farmers.

In this episode, Anne Lee speaks with Stu Davison from HighGround Dairy to unpack what’s behind the 6.3% rebound in the GDT index after a prolonged run of declines. Stu explains how aggressive buying from the Middle East, shifting oil prices and heightened geopolitical tension have combined to drive short-term support across powders and milk fats, despite global milk supply continuing to run hot.

Peter McBride sees Fonterra’s proposed sale of its consumer business as a pivotal step in refocusing the co-operative’s strategy and strengthening long-term farmer returns.

In this episode, Anne Lee speaks with the Fonterra Chairman about the rationale behind the sale to Lactalis, what’s included in the deal, and how it aligns with the co-op’s vision to concentrate on ingredients and foodservice. He explains how the move will help sharpen Fonterra’s focus, unlock value for farmer shareholders, and position the business to compete more effectively in global markets.

In this episode, Sheryl Haitana speaks with Cristina Alvarado, Head of Dairy Insights at NZX, and Stu Davison, Analyst at HighGround Dairy. Cristina outlines the factors behind strong global dairy prices, including tight supply and steady demand from China and Southeast Asia, while Stu highlights forecasted milk production growth driven by the US, Argentina, and New Zealand.

They discuss uncertainties around Chinese demand, emerging markets like Nigeria, and the impact of upcoming tariff decisions. Together, they provide a concise outlook on key trends shaping the dairy market in 2025.

In this episode, we explore the rise in global dairy prices underpinned by China’s expanding appetite for our dairy products with growing demand for high-protein foods. We also discuss the economic impact of trade tensions and how farmers can navigate this market volatility. Plus, the importance of future policy settings in the face of an unpredictable global landscape.

Despite recent market recoveries, many farmers could benefit from more independent scrutiny of their plans, Phil Edmonds writes.

After August’s fall has come the recovery of the dairy market. By Rosalind Crickett.